About three weeks ago, I noted how Miami opponents were blistering-hot from 3-point range, and how rare it has been over the last decade-plus for a team that allows both a lot of 3-point attempts and a high percentage of makes on those attempts to advance far in the playoffs. Miami last season pulled off the trick, in part because they tightened up their 3-point defense considerably in the playoffs. In other words, the message three weeks ago was, Chill. They’ve done this before, and they’re the champs.

Three weeks later, Miami opponents are still averaging a league-high 25.5 triple tries per game, even though Miami’s pace of play is right around the league average. The shooting percentage on those 3s has dropped from 40-plus percent three weeks ago to 35.8 percent now — about league-average. Still: The combination of a decent opponent 3-point percentage and a ton of attempts has generally been a very bad indicator of postseason longevity. But we went through this last season with Miami, and veteran-laden champs earn some “flip the switch” leeway.

We went through this last season with Miami. The Heat allowed the fourth-most 3-point attempts in the league — while playing at a below-average pace — and watched opponents hit a whopping 36.3 percent of those 3s. From 1998-99 through 2010-11, only two of the 48 conference finalists finished the regular season having allowed both an above-average number of 3-point attempts and an above-average opponent shooting percentage on long balls. Those two teams — the 2001 Bucks and 2006 Suns — were essentially right at the league average in one of the two categories once you adjusted for pace; the Heat were awful at both, a terrible historic omen for their title chances in a league that has long since embraced the 3 as a must-have weapon. Then the playoffs happened.