What do smart NFL teams do in and around draft day that naive, stupid teams don't do? They draft better players, of course, but it's not that simple. They don't "want it more" and will themselves into picking better players. The dregs of the league don't just forget what winning football teams look like and come away from the draft with three punters and a kicking tee. Matt Millen drafted Calvin Johnson. The Browns took Joe Thomas at the top of the first round. Dumb teams do brilliant things sometimes. And likewise, the teams we perceive to be among the league's smartest make plenty of mistakes on draft day. The Ravens traded up to grab Kyle Boller. The 49ers took Alex Smith over Aaron Rodgers. Bill Belichick has drafted dozens of useless defensive backs over the past few years. This stuff happens.

Because they occasionally screw up, we know that it's not that the league's wise teams are privy to some super-secret scouting technique that the dumb ones can't pick up on. They don't see some tiny hitch on tape or have some perfect interview question that reveals everything about a player's future. And players don't come fully developed out of the college womb, either; they continue the growth and maturation process at the professional level, and it would be naive to pretend that the organization they end up in doesn't have a huge say in that. It's no accident that linebackers for the Steelers and defensive linemen on the Giants seem to develop more reliably than if those same players lined up for the Chargers or the Jaguars.

Attention, shoppers: The bargains have finally started to make their way into the NFL free-agency marketplace. After two days of average players getting premium contracts, Thursday was really the first day when teams were able to sign players on significant discounts from both the reported expectations of those players and the actual value of their performance. It's a trend that should continue into and through the weekend before becoming even more obvious next week. The flooded-market model is really beginning to take hold.

The best deal of the day came out of Seattle, where general manager John Schneider is having a pretty wonderful offseason. Faced with the possibility of having a limited Chris Clemons for most (or all) of the 2013 campaign after Clemons tore his ACL on the substance-resembling-a-field in Washington during the playoffs, Schneider has made two bold moves to restore his front four. On Wednesday, he gave a very credible deal to Lions defensive end Cliff Avril, who signed for $15 million over two years. Yesterday, he topped that contract with a one-year, $5 million deal for Buccaneers end Michael Bennett, who had nine sacks last year despite serving as the only viable edge rusher in Tampa Bay for most of the season. Combined with 2012 first-round pick Bruce Irvin, who was a terrifying pass rusher in a situational role last year, the Seahawks should be able to rotate at least two above-average and fresh pass rushers in on every play. They can even move one of these guys to the interior on obvious passing downs and try to create pressure against a slow guard up the gut. Schneider has turned a weakness into a strength while spending just $20 million over two years, which is just a little more than what the Chiefs gave tight end Anthony Fasano. It's impressive work from a general manager who's quickly gaining recognition as one of the best in the league.

In case you were busy justifying your documentary short's omission from this year's Sundance Film Festival, here's what you missed in sports on Thursday.

• Miami scored the final nine points of the game in a 99-90 win over the Los Angeles Lakers at Staples Center. LeBron James dominated the game on both ends of the court scoring 39 points to go along with seven rebounds and three steals. "We've been bad on the road this year by our standards, so I came out mad," LeBron explained after the game, before Kobe Bryant appeared behind him cloaked in a cloud of smoke. "Oh, you think darkness is your ally? You merely adopted the dark. I was born in it," Bryant said to James with a menacing laugh. A terrified James responded, "Why didn't you just beat us then?" Bryant grinned broadly at James and hissed, "your punishment must be more severe."

Now that we are living in the aftermath of another Peyton Manning playoff defeat, there's only one way to determine whether no. 18's postseason record really matters: Have two people argue about it.

Below you'll find all the numbers you need to draw your own conclusion; in addition you'll get a B.S. Report with Bill Simmons and his illegitimate son, Bill Barnwell, arguing what all this means … if anything.

The Ravens and Redskins have been two nearby teams at opposite ends of the NFL spectrum for most of the past decade. They're case studies in how to run an organization and how not to run one, respectively, a contrast between the cool approach of longtime Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome and the annual frenzied idiocy of Redskins owner Daniel Snyder as lovingly interpreted by longtime sidekick Vinny Cerrato. The Cerrato era has moved on, but it wasn't until the second half of this season that the two neighbors started to look like they were swapping roles.

The Ravens went 10-6, but they slumped badly after a glut of defensive injuries that took out many of their stars, notably including legendary middle linebacker Ray Lewis, who announced his impending retirement from the game at the end of the season. The Redskins went the other way to 10-6, starting slowly before igniting after their bye week with a seven-game winning streak to end the season under their new franchise player, 22-year-old quarterback Robert Griffin III. The two teams even had a game that served as a microcosm of their respective regular seasons in Week 14, a game in which the Redskins got off to an early lead, only for the Ravens to pull ahead for most of the game before Washington got hot at the end and pulled out a narrow, come-from-behind victory after Griffin suffered an injury. The Ravens limped into the postseason, while the Redskins roared.

In case you were busy coming up with a fun portmanteau to describe your post-holiday diet, here's what you missed in sports last weekend:

• The Seattle Seahawks came back from an early 14-0 deficit with 24 unanswered points to eliminate the Washington Redskins, 24-14, at FedEx Field. Seahawks coach Pete Carroll was his typical subdued self in the postgame press conference, shouting, "YEEEEEEHAWWWWWW WOOOO WOOO WOOO PETE CARROLL PETE CARROLL PETE CARROLL!" before running around the room until he tired himself out and took a nap under the podium.
• In what could have been Ray Lewis's last game, the Baltimore Ravens used a strong second half to beat the Indianapolis Colts, 24-9. The turning point came at halftime when Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh decided to stop "sucking for Luck" when he learned that strategy had been a tactic teams used to jockey for draft position last season, and not a way to exploit Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck's tendency to feel bad and take it easy on inferior opponents.
• The Houston Texans topped the Cincinnati Bengals, 19-13, and will advance to face the New England Patriots in the AFC Divisional round. Tom Brady appeared to provide some bulletin board material for the Texans, saying he was pleased with the matchup, but went on to explain he was only happy to avoid a matchup with the Bengals, who bring with them the smell of Cincinnati, a mix of bad chili and stagnant river water, that clings to his puffier garments for weeks.

In part 1 of 2, Cousin Sal and Chad Millman join Bill to review the Week 17 action and look forward to the matchups on wild-card weekend. In part 2, Mike Lombardi offers his analysis of the NFL playoff matchups, and Joe House celebrates the Redskins' big win over the Cowboys.

The Colts have become serious business. Their 7-1 stretch has propelled them all the way to 9-4, and they have a virtual stranglehold on a playoff spot: Football Outsiders estimates that the Colts' chances of making the playoffs are at 92.9 percent. Heck, if they managed to sweep the Texans in their upcoming home-and-home series, they could actually control their own destiny and win the AFC South! Heady times for a team that went 2-14 last year; that's for sure.

How impressive has Indianapolis's transformation into a playoff contender really been? Is the swing unprecedented? Is it enough to justify the Coach of the Year award that Bruce Arians is likely to get this offseason? Should it push Andrew Luck to the front of the line for Rookie of the Year? Does he deserve MVP consideration? And are the Colts a team that opponents are really going to fear in this year's playoffs?

In case you were out living a life of leisure, here's what you missed in sports over the weekend.

• A last-minute drive came up short when no. 3 Georgia opted not to spike the football inside the 10 and instead mistakenly completed a pass to the 5-yard line, allowing the clock to run out and giving no. 2 Alabama a 32-28 win in the SEC championship game and a spot in the BCS title game opposite Notre Dame. Georgia coach Mark Richt insisted that he kept trying to yell at his team to spike the ball, but that his vocal cords felt painfully constricted, while video footage of the Alabama sideline shows Nick Saban reaching across the field with one hand at that exact moment.

The arrival of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III into the National Football League could not have gone much more swimmingly. In fact, while expectations were high for the top two picks in the 2012 draft, it's arguable that they've both exceeded whatever lofty expectations they rode in on over the summer. Luck is leading a team that went 2-14 last season on an improbable playoff run in the AFC South, while RG3 has become the league's most exciting player and might even be the best player in the NFC East this year. Fans of the Colts and Redskins — and good football — have to be ecstatic at what their respective organizations are set up to do over the next 15 years.

In case you were out living a life of leisure, here's what you missed in sports over the weekend.

• No. 13 Stanford stymied no. 2 Oregon's vaunted offense and all but ended the Ducks' national title hopes with a 17-14 overtime upset. In what can only be called a copycat crime, an enraged Oregon fan used pesticide in an attempt to poison the famous Stanford tree, and was undeterred when the tree kept yelling "I'm a person! I'm a mascot!"

In case you were out living a life of leisure, here's what you missed in sports on Thursday.

• Andrew Luck threw for 227 yards and ran for two touchdowns as the Colts beat the Jaguars 27-10 for their fourth straight win. Based on the strange waddling run of at least two players on the Jaguars defense, along with embarrassed tears and the telltale stains, it was clear that the infamous "accident epidemic" is still alive and well in Jacksonville.
• EJ Manuel hit Rashad Greene for the go-ahead touchdown pass with 40 seconds left, and no. 10 Florida State held on to beat Virginia Tech 28-22. After the game, at the midfield handshake, Frank Beamer and Jimbo Fisher found themselves unable to resist a spontaneous do-si-do.

On any given Sunday (or Monday, or Thursday), your NFL Run & Shootaround crew will be gathered around multiple televisions, making inappropriate jokes and generally regressing to the mean. Catch up on all the NFL action right here.

The King's Speech

This season, with the widespread distribution of RedZone and the behind-the-curtain nature of the year's great controversies (Bountygate and replacement refs), the NFL has made me feel like a bit of a voyeur. Experiencing this league in some kind of hyperactive way, zooming through story lines, injuries, wins, losses, tweets, radio bits, GIFs, and, yes, games, I feel like I'm watching lots of things I shouldn't, or at least lots of things I don't need to see. It's a testament to the NFL's unmatched production values that I (a) can follow it all, and (b) haven't gone insane.

Maybe that's why the footage of Colts head coach Chuck Pagano giving his team a postgame speech after their victory over the Dolphins felt like it brought another manic Sunday to a halt.

On any given Sunday (or Monday, or Thursday), your NFL Run & Shootaround crew will be gathered around multiple televisions, making inappropriate jokes and generally regressing to the mean. Catch up on all the NFL action right here.

The Sure Thing

Sunday afternoon wasn’t Andrew Luck’s first game-winning drive. That was in Week 2, when Luck completed two 20-yard strikes before Indianapolis kicked a go-ahead field goal to sneak past a Minnesota team that hasn’t lost since. But what Luck put together against the Packers yesterday was a little more than two deep outs against coverage begging for them. Down five, with four and a half minutes left, Luck would face three third downs with at least seven yards to go, and he delivered on each.

The signature play came on the second of those third downs, just after the two-minute warning, as Indianapolis faced a third-and-12 from Green Bay’s 47. With Clay Matthews wrapped around him, Luck, falling back and to his left, delivered the ball over the middle to Reggie Wayne for what seemed like his 30th catch of the day. Luck hit Wayne again on the next play, another deep "in" that took the Colts down to the 14, and after a third-down scramble got Indy a first-and-goal inside the 10, it was Wayne who finished things off.

In case you were out living a life of leisure, here's what you missed in sports over the weekend.

• Matt Kenseth managed to avoid a 25-car pileup on his way to earning a Sprint Cup victory at Talladega Superspeedway. Kyle Busch, car No. 25 in the pileup, later admitted that he drove in mostly because he "wanted to see what it was like." The only non-car in the pileup, Rex Ryan, said he heard there were free pastries.