The baseball analytics revolution has helped us answer many questions that might have seemed unknowable before. We can now measure not only a pitcher's velocity but also the exact horizontal and vertical break on his pitches, the precise coordinates of his arm slot, and dozens of other variables. We can calculate the worth of catchers who excel at framing pitches. We can even take the sum of a player's contributions and find a reasonable estimate of his overall value.
Lovely pursuits, all. But mere trivialities next to the most pressing baseball question the world has ever had to face: If Mr. Burns had to re-staff the Springfield Nuclear Power Plant softball team with a lineup full of present-day players, who should he choose?
Todd Frazier has reached base in 22 straight games. He's hitting .294/.354/.554, making him a top-25 hitter in his rookie season. In the past 30 days, only Buster Posey, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and teammate Ryan Ludwick have put up bigger numbers. In that same 30-day stretch, the Reds have gone 19-11, blazing to the best record in baseball and giving themselves a shot at their first World Series in 22 years.
So what does the best team in baseball do with the guy who's been its best hitter for the past two months? Bat him cleanup? Give him a long-term deal? Throw him a parade?
Not quite. When Joey Votto comes off the disabled list on Saturday, Dusty Baker plans to look Frazier square in the eye, and give him the good news. Congratulations, you've just been benched.
In case you were out living a life of leisure, here's what you missed in sports on Monday.
The Brazilian basketball team couldn't capitalize on a strong first quarter, and fell to the United States 80-69 in Washington, D.C. Alex Garcia led the early charge with eight first-quarter points, and NBA star Anderson Varejao finished with 12 points and 13 boards for an impressive double-double. But the team's counter-attacking style grew less potent as the game progressed, and an early 10-point lead vanished as the shots stopped falling and the guards committed a slew of costly turnovers. The loss cast serious doubt on coach Ruben Magnano's controversial assertion that this year's team is better than the 1964 Equipe de Sonho, which won the Olympic bronze medal.
Of course, the general consensus of this deal, and the Brandon Phillips one that followed, was that the Reds would one day regret it. Votto might have MVP credentials, but he plays a position that’s easy to fill, and there will come a day in 2023 when he’s a 40-year-old first baseman making $25 million. Meanwhile, the Phillips deal wasn’t as grand in years or overall cash, but the Reds second baseman will now be getting paid like a 30-30 player in 2017. The 10th anniversary of the only time he actually went 30-30.
When the news broke that the Giants had signed Matt Cain to a five-year, $112.5 million contract extension a year before he could hit the free-agent market, the first thought that popped into my head was opportunity cost.
An economic term, opportunity cost refers to the options you're missing by making a specific choice. If you choose to play outside in the sunshine, you're missing out on hours of sitting on your ass in the dark, eating Pop-Tarts and playing Blades of Steel (stop nagging me, mom). If you sign Matt Cain to a $112.5 million contract, you're missing out on other players you could sign with that money. In the case of the hitting-deprived Giants, you're foregoing the chance to sign a hitter to help your anemic offense.
A few hours later, Joey Votto signed a 10-year, $225 million deal … two years before he could become a free agent. Then you look around at the talent likely to be available on the open market and realize: There's very little left. And just like that, opportunity cost becomes nearly irrelevant.
In case you were out living a life of leisure, here's what you missed in sports on Monday.
The Kentucky Wildcats are national champions. Doron Lamb scored 22 points, including crucial back-to-back threes late in the game, as Kentucky held off Kansas for a 67-59 win. This is John Calipari's first national title, and he told reporters he plans to enjoy it privately at home with his family, a couple close friends, and an elite squadron of the 50 best high school seniors in the country, dribbling in unison in the basement and chanting his name.
The celebration in Lexington was immediate and wild, as one person was shot and several more arrested in the hours after the victory. The shooter was quickly acquitted, however, when it was proved that someone had got him "all riled up" on banjo pickin,' the most common cause of violence in Kentucky. The banjoist was found and executed after a show trial.
