By Kirk Goldsberry at
Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images
The other night in San Antonio, the Spurs “regained control” of their series with the upstart Golden State Warriors. Their winning formula was familiar: Tim Duncan and Tony Parker led the team in field goal attempts, while Manu Ginobili, Kawhi Leonard, and Danny Green each provided valuable supplements. The Spurs have a clear hierarchy of talent and leadership that generally manifests into a predictably similar order on the stat sheet.
The current Warriors hierarchy is in a bit of disarray. Although these playoffs have undeniably improved the reputations of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, in Game 5 it was Harrison Barnes and Jarrett Jack leading the Warriors in field goal attempts, while Curry and Thompson were off somewhere in the basement of the Alamo.
By Kirk Goldsberry at
Brian Cassella/Chicago Tribune/MCT via Getty Images
Less than 90 seconds into Monday’s Game 4 between the Bulls and Heat, something seemingly uneventful happened. Dwyane Wade had just received an entry pass down on the right block, where he was doubled by Nate Robinson and Carlos Boozer. Joakim Noah was also interested in stopping Wade, and he had strayed from Udonis Haslem to camp out alone at the crown of the restricted area. Suddenly, one of those non sequitur whistles sounded and play abruptly stopped.
Joakim Noah was called for defensive three seconds, which results in a technical foul. This call established early on that the refs were not going to tolerate Noah’s cheating toward the basket, thus denying the Bulls a vital tactical advantage.
A survey of the players and teams making moves in last night's NBA action.
Klay Thompson
Danny Chau: This is a shot chart of Klay Thompson’s many 3-pointers from Game 2, overlaid on his 3-point attempts during the regular season. It’s wild.
As you can see, a majority of his shots traced the beginning arc on the right side of the floor. That is his favorite area of the court, and has been since he stepped foot in the league. Nearly 40 percent of his 3s in the regular season come from that hot zone (it’s also Steph Curry’s favorite area to shoot, but he’s more bashful about it). Thompson was fantastic from the right side as a rookie, shooting nearly 46 percent, but with greater usage this season, that figure plummeted to (a still very respectable) 37 percent, making it his least effective 3-point hot zone. It was by far his least effective in the first seven games of the playoffs, too. Before last night’s onslaught, he was 2-for-10 from that area. But shooters keep shooting, and they’ll keep shooting where they want to.
The October trade that sent James Harden from Oklahoma to Texas has been dissected a thousand times by a thousand people. However, the trade is particularly relevant again today; 87 games later, Harden is leading his Rockets squad to a potential upset over his former team. Sure, the Westbrook injury changed the series — and the entire Western Conference playoffs, for that matter — but an upset in this series would still be a huge moment for Harden and the Rockets.
While it’s obvious that Harden has made the Rockets a better basketball team, it’s also important to recall that eight months ago we had little idea how Harden would react to his new environment. After a few years in OKC, we knew he could be Ginobili, but it was unclear whether he could be Parker or Duncan. Though it was apparent that Harden would be the primary scorer for his new team and his volume would surge, it was anybody’s guess as to how he’d perform.
Well, the volume surged, and he’s performed extremely well. He took 17 shots a game this season after only attempting 10 per game last year. He’s also proven that he is a superstar-level player who deserves a max contract, and he’s got one of the more interesting and unique games in the league.
A couple of weeks ago I was listening to Grantland’s own Jonah Keri talk about some Reds pitcher who had “lost velocity” on his fastball. As he spoke, I wondered what the NBA equivalent of this would be. Baseball has radar guns that reliably identify a downturn in pitching ability; we don’t have that instrument in the NBA. It’s not as easy to detect performance declines in basketball.
If there’s one theme that’s dominated the last few weeks in the NBA, perhaps it’s the immemorial relationship between age and decay. The NBA season is long, basketball is grueling, and old guys break down. The league is full of aging superstars who are always a tweak or aggravation away from street clothes.
NBA players attempted 201,608 field goals this season; they made 91,282 of them. In other words, the league shot 45.3 percent from the floor. These are pretty standard numbers for a full 82-game season, but there were two noticeable trends in NBA shooting patterns. First, compared to last year’s shortened and condensed season, the league was more efficient on offense. The 45.3 field goal percentage was a slight increase from last year, when the league made 44.8 percent of its shots.
By Grantland Staff at
Jesse D. Garrabant/NBAE via Getty Images
So much amazing is happening, and the Shootaround crew is here to help you keep track of it all. You'll find takes on moments you might've missed from the previous night, along with ones you will remember forever.
He Ate the Bones
Bucks coach Jim Boylan on LeBron James: "I mean, what can you do?"
By Chris Ryan at
Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images
On this week's edition of the Triangle Podcast, Mays and I talked with Zach Lowe about the Cavs (woof), the Nuggets (yes), and the Grizzlies (yes!). Kirk Goldsberry stopped by in-studio to talk about Carmelo Anthony's incredible season (you can read more about that here) and spatial analytics. Mays and I chatted a bit about the Final Four, and which tournament players we thought could be decent in the NBA. Finally, Jonah Keri called in to talk about the young MLB season, focusing on the Marlins, the Angels, the Nats-Reds series, and the sad fall of Roy Halladay.
Despite their loss last night, the Knicks remain one of the hottest teams in the NBA. As we approach the conclusion of the regular season, New York has won 13 of 14 games, and has have established itself as the second-best team in the Eastern Conference. At the same time, Carmelo Anthony has established himself as the second-best player in the Eastern Conference.
Melo always has been a very active shooter, but he appears to be a different player this year than last; his shooting patterns have changed, and his efficiencies are way up. While Anthony deserves tons of credit for his recent scoring terror, it’s also a reminder of how important teammates and coaches are in the NBA. Simply put, Melo is in a better situation this season; he’s got better teammates, and as a result he’s taking better advantage of better scoring chances.
Back on March 25, the Grizzlies and Wizards were playing a game at the Verizon Center. The score was only 4-4 when Zach Randolph missed an 11-foot jumper along the left baseline. The rebound came down into the hands of Washington’s Emeka Okafor, who quickly fired a long outlet pass to John Wall, who dribbled across midcourt and attacked Memphis’s transition defense. As Wall weaved toward the free throw line, Steve Buckhantz, the Wizards play-by-play guy said, “Here comes Washington with Wall who cuts into the middle.”
As Wall rose for a transition 17-foot shot, Buckhantz said, “now he’ll take that shot ... ”
The shot fell and he noted, “Very confident. I mean his game has come to a new level right now.”
The NBA is churning out a wonderful product right now, and last night’s game in Boston serves as a perfect example. LeBron James, the league MVP currently in the midst of an incredible winning streak with his Miami Heat, arrived in the city of his most bitter rival. Like it or not, Boston is still one of the league’s best atmospheres. And like it or not, Miami is still the best team in the league. Factor in Miami and Boston's “hate” for each other, and you've got a recipe for a great night.
Unfortunately, about an hour prior to tipoff, the Celtics announced that Kevin Garnett would not play. If the Celtics had a puncher’s chance to beat the Heat with Garnett on the floor, without him their chances were seemingly reduced to those of Glass Joe's. But this was no ordinary night.
Playing in his fifth game in seven nights, LeBron was focused, even before tipoff. After the Celtics' introductions, James was the first man to take the floor. Well before the dancers had even cleared the court, James stood straddling the midcourt line like Roberto Duran waiting for Sugar Ray Leonard.
On February 5 in Brooklyn, the Lakers and Nets were tied at 80 with about 2:50 left in the fourth quarter. The Lakers had the ball with seven seconds on the shot clock. Kobe Bryant had isolated on Gerald Wallace, 30 feet from the rim, beyond the left wing. Bryant crossed the ball over to his left hand and quickly went through his legs back to his right. He stuttered and accelerated to his right toward the paint. The attack consisted of two short dribbles and a few quickened strides. He elevated just outside the restricted area. Kris Humphries, the Nets' 6-foot-9, 235-pound power forward who would turn 28 the next day, awaited. Bryant was not deterred. With Gerald Wallace right on his heels and Humphries helping, the graying Mamba leaped and dunked hard on both men to make the score 82-80. In this one play Kobe changed the mood on the floor and in the arena. The Nets would score only three more points; the Lakers went on to win 92-83.
One of the basic tenets of basketball is that some shots are easier than others; a layup is easier than a half-court heave. However, it turns out that the relationship between shot distance and field goal percentage is more complicated than you might expect. Although it seems logical to assume that there is a direct relationship between shot distance and field goal percentage, this is not true. In fact, one of basketball analytics’ inconvenient truths is that many 3-point shots have higher average field goal percentages than many 2-point shots, and many of the league’s lowest-percentage shots occur much closer to the basket than you might think.
One of the things about sports analytics these days is that, while combing through and analyzing massive amounts of performance data, you come across “findings” that are unexpected or surprising. Without ever watching a game or studying film, you discover things you never knew about a player or a team. Occasionally these findings are so unbelievable you are forced to somehow validate them. You say things like “That can’t be right” and look for opportunities to confirm.
On February 13, the Spurs and Cavaliers were tied at 93 with about 15 seconds left in the game. Dion Waiters was dribbling near midcourt and about to make one of the biggest shots of his career. With just under 14 seconds left, Tristan Thompson set a screen on Kawhi Leonard near the top of the arc, enabling Waiters to advance the ball a little closer to the basket along the left side. As Waiters approached the left elbow, he lunged toward Tim Duncan, but quickly stepped back to create space for a long, off-balance 2-point shot. The ball left Waiters’s hand from about 20 feet out and went through the net with 9.5 seconds remaining. Despite not passing the ball once, the Cavs scored, the score was now 95-93, and Dion made this face:
