Before we tackle the "Quick Picks" for Week 11, we have to mention the latest episode of America’s new favorite show, TEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE-BOWWWWWWWWWW! I’m on Team Tebow for four reasons …

Posted at 5:04 PM

Every Thursday afternoon in the Triangle for the remainder of the 2011 season, Bill Simmons will make his pick for that night's NFL game. Here's his pick for this week (home team in caps).

The Spread: Jets (-6.5) BRONCOS

Just looking at it logically …
Posted at 6:11 PM

Every Thursday afternoon in the Triangle for the remainder of the 2011 season, Bill Simmons will make his pick for that night's NFL game. Here's his pick for Week 10 (home team in caps).

Posted at 6:19 PM

Every sportsbook worth its salt provides a "NFL statistics" sheet for potential bettors to peruse before plunking down their cash. These sheets can vary, but just about all of them we've seen include one piece of information: A team's record against the spread, which refers to a team's performance versus the line set in sportsbooks as opposed to their actual performance on the field. For example, take the Carolina Panthers. While they're 1-4 in real life, their three-point loss to the Saints last week came in a game in which they were 6.5-point underdogs. That's a win against the spread, and it took them to 4-1 against the spread (hereafter abbreviated as ATS) this season. The statistics sheet chops ATS data all kinds of different ways, so you can see ATS performance in a team's past five games, or how it does on the road, or how effective it is as the underdog.

There's only one problem with ATS data: It has no predicative value whatsoever. It's the sportsbook equivalent of the video board next to each roulette table that details the outcome of the last 20 spins, trying to catch the eye of somebody who thinks their number is due. It's useless information masquerading as relevant statistics. And in this space over the next couple of weeks, we'll prove it to you.

Posted at 1:29 PM