Wednesday was a special day here at Casa Keri. Upon reading the big news, I stripped down to my custom-made Youppi Underoos, poured a case of Great Divide's finest over my head, and ran headlong into walls on four non-consecutive occasions. That's right, friends: The 2013 MLB over/unders finally hit the streets.
For those of you unfamiliar with the wonders of baseball over/under wagering, check out the piece I wrote about it last year. Here's a condensed explanation: Nevada sets a win total for every team in baseball, with the goal to attract as much betting action as possible. From the bookmakers' perspective, the betting, ideally, will be fairly balanced on both sides, although they claim a small vigorish (basically a bit of extra money) on many of the lines. For shnooks like you and me, the goal is simple: Find over/under win totals that look terribly out of whack, take advantage of those inefficiencies, then bet as many Gummi Bears as you can muster.
Team Grantland went 3-1 last year, winning on the Tigers (under 93½ wins), Cardinals (over 85½ wins), and Rays (over 87½ wins), and losing on the Dodgers (under 81½). I typically like to take a few weeks to round up intel before placing bets, breaking down every team's depth charts, perusing the various projection systems, and weighing about 500 other factors so nerdily microscopic, you'd have me committed if I listed them all. Since we've only had about 36 hours to peruse the lines put out by Atlantis Casino sports book director Steve Mikkelson, and since I'm not planning to make any wagers until my trip to Vegas next month, it's too early to settle on bets for the 2013 season. But going through Mikkelson's list, we can start a process of elimination — bets that, whether due to a particular team's uncertainties, or simply the line matching up pretty well with projections, just aren't worth risking.